For a small subset of the population — poor people who procreate to obtain welfare benefits — pro-natal government policies do lead to high total fertility rates.

That exception aside, decades of tax benefits and other pro-natal government policies in numerous Western countries have produced only modest, mostly temporary gains that fall far short of their desired results.

The middle class will take advantage of generous government subsidies to have their babies sooner than later but the subsidies won’t persuade a couple that wants to end up with two children to have three, or a couple that doesn’t want children to embrace parenthood.