Reversing the West’s Population Implosion

Fertility Probe explains why all fertility-boosting policies by governments of all stripes have failed—and points to the reforms that can reverse the decline.

2.1

Replacement Level

Fertile Thoughts

A curated collection of articles, insights, and thought-provoking excerpts exploring fertility, demographics, family, public policy, and the forces shaping societies and their future.

Presumed Demographic Drivers

Economic Conditions

Income levels, job security and economic uncertainty, influence family size, decisions

Education & Empowerment

Rising education, especially among women, is strongly linked to lower fertility rates.

Policy & Governance

Taxes, benefits, housing and family policies can either support or suppress fertility.

Urbanization & Social Services

Urbanization provides health, family planning and lifestyle options, contributing to lower fertility rates.

Global Challenges. Personal Choices

2.1

The average number of children needed per woman in the west to maintain a society whose population doesn’t decline. The number, known as the replacement-level fertility rate, exceeds 2 because more boys than girls — 105 vs 100 — are born, and because some girls die young, without having children. In countries with high infant mortality, the replacement-level fertility rate exceeds 3.0.

35 +

For a society to reach the 2.1 average fertility rate needed to reach sustainability, 35% of women will need to have three or more children to compensate for those who have fewer than two, whether because of personal choice or infertility.

1

The number of affluent countries that have stable or growing fertility rates. That sole country is Israel, whose overall fertility rate is 3, almost twice that of western countries. Jews in Israel, whether secular or religious, meet or exceed the 2.1 figure. Israel’s large Muslim population (21% of the total) also has a relatively high fertility rate, unlike Israel’s small but affluent Christian population, whose fertility more resembles that of Europe.

IMMACULATE CONCEPTIONS